When should you go for 2 in the NFL?
Go for 2 when success moves you to a better score threshold. Key situations: down 2 (go for 2 to tie), down 5 (to make it a FG game), down 9 (to make it a one-score game where TD+XP ties).
NFL 2-Point Conversion Calculator
Should you go for 2 or kick the extra point? Get recommendations based on NFL success rates and score thresholds.
How This Calculator Works
This calculator uses NFL statistics and score threshold analysis to recommend whether you should go for 2 or kick the extra point.
NFL Success Rates
- Extra point: 94% success rate
- 2-point conversion: 48% success rate
Key Score Thresholds
- Tied or leading - Best position
- Down 1-3 - Field goal ties or wins
- Down 4-7 - One TD ties or wins
- Down 8 - Need TD + 2pt to tie
- Down 9-10 - Need TD + FG
- Down 11-14 - Need 2 TDs
The decision is based on whether going for 2 moves you to a better threshold. For example, if you're down 2 after a TD, going for 2 can tie the game (better than being down 1 after an XP).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the NFL 2-point conversion success rate?
NFL teams convert 2-point attempts about 48% of the time. Extra points are successful about 94% of the time. While the expected value is similar (0.96 vs 0.94 points), the decision should be based on score thresholds, not raw point value.
Why would you kick when down 8?
When down 8 after a TD, kicking the XP puts you down 7, where a TD+XP ties the game. Going for 2 risks staying at down 8 (needing TD+2pt to tie) for only a 48% chance to get to down 6. The threshold improvement isn't worth the risk.
Does time remaining affect the decision?
In most situations, the score threshold matters more than time. However, very late in games with limited possessions, you may need to deviate based on win probability and expected remaining possessions.
What are the canonical "go for 2" situations?
The main go-for-2 differentials (after TD, before conversion) are: down 2 (tie vs down 1), down 5 (down 3/FG ties vs down 4), down 9 (down 7/TD ties vs down 8), down 12 (down 10 vs down 11), and down 16 (down 14/2 TDs vs down 15).