Should you go for it, punt, or kick a field goal? Get recommendations based on NFL conversion rates and field goal percentages.
This calculator uses NFL statistics and expected points analysis to recommend whether you should go for it, punt, or attempt a field goal.
The calculator compares the expected point value of each option. When trailing late in the game, it automatically recommends going for it since punting would concede the game.
Expected points (EP) measures the average number of points a team scores from a given field position. For example, having 1st down at midfield is worth about 2 expected points, while being pinned at your own 5 is worth close to 0. The calculator uses EP to compare the value of each 4th down decision.
Analytics generally favor going for it more often than traditional coaching. Key situations: 4th & short (1-3 yards) almost anywhere on the field, 4th & medium in opponent territory, and any 4th down when trailing late in the game. The calculator weighs conversion probability against the cost of turning it over.
When you're losing with little time left, the "safe" play (punting) actually guarantees a loss since you won't get the ball back. In these desperate situations, you must take risks to have any chance of winning. Conversely, when protecting a big lead, conservative plays make more sense.
NFL kickers make about 95% from under 30 yards, 85% from 30-39 yards, 75% from 40-49 yards, 60% from 50-59 yards, and only 35% from 60+ yards. The calculator factors in these probabilities when recommending a field goal attempt.
This calculator uses simplified NFL averages and expected points models similar to those used by ESPN and other analytics sites. Real-world decisions should also consider team-specific factors like your offense's conversion rate, kicker accuracy, weather conditions, and opponent strength.